Emi Martinez Might Be an Upgrade On Andre Onana, But Is He Really That Much Better?
If reports are to be believed, Manchester United are in the hunt for a new goalkeeper as Ruben Amorim looks to improve on Andre Onana, and Emi Martinez has been the front-runner for the last month.
The Cameroonian has had a rough spell at the club, and his position between the sticks has often been a matter of dispute amongst the Man United fanbase. With the club searching for a new ‘keeper to either push Onana to improve or even replace him, Emi Martinez is the name that keeps springing up. Although there are now conflicting reports suggesting a move won’t materialise.
Either way, the Argentinian is widely regarded as a top-class player throughout football. He is a World Cup winner, a two-time Yashin Trophy recipient, and voted as the FIFA Men’s Goalkeeper of the Year twice. However, his reputation may not match the true abilities of the Aston Villa man, and he may not even be THAT much of an upgrade on the current Manchester United goalie.
Is Emi Martinez Really Better Than Andre Onana?
On the surface, the initial answer to this would be an unequivocal yes. How can a World Cup champion and two-time Yashin Trophy winner not be better than a man who has split the opinion of a fanbase? But when you dive into the statistics, you might think there isn’t much difference between the two when it comes to shot-stopping.
In terms of the “traditional” shot-stopping metrics, the pair ranked near identically when plotted against the rest of the Premier League No. 1s, although Martinez slightly beats out Andre Onana. However, this isn’t the most ideal way to judge a ‘keeper’s shot-stopping.
Post-Shot Expected Goals minus Goals Allowed (PSxG – GA) is a much better way to judge a goalkeeper’s true ability to save shots. This judges how well a goalkeeper does based on the quality of shots they face. If they have a positive number, it means they have saved more than expected, and a negative means they have conceded more than expected.
This is where we start to see a difference. Andre Onana comes in at the 37th percentile with a -0.01 PSxG –
GA, meanwhile, Emi Martinez ranks in the 71st, with a 0.09 PSxG – GA according to FBref. This showcases that while the data below suggests the goalkeepers are similarly ranked when it comes to goals conceded and xG prevented, Emi Martinez outperforms Onana by quite some distance due to the quality of shots he faces.
However, the bigger upgrade between the pair might be what they do when they aren’t saving shots. Emi Martinez is a much more accurate goalkeeper when it comes to distribution, in particular, long-range passes.
Additionally, while it might only be a slight improvement, the Argentine is also better with passes in general, as shown below. But the true upgrade comes through their box presence. Andre Onana only stops 5.5% of crosses into the box, whereas Emi Martinez is one of the highest rankers, (Top 5%), with 11.3% of crosses stopped.
A key point to make is that Martinez also won’t be away for AFCON like Andre Onana and other Manchester United players could be!
A Clear Upgrade for Manchester United, But Is It the Right Move?
Emi Martinez is a clear upgrade based on the data. The Argentine does face harder shots and saves more goals than he is expected to; he is slightly better with distribution but he offers way more in terms of stopping crosses.
On paper, it is a logical move for the Old Trafford club, but age and wages may play a crucial factor. Martinez is currently 32-years-old, and is reportedly on £150,000 per week at Aston Villa. It is likely that the goalkeeper will look for an improved salary, as this could be his final chance for a big career move.
While INEOS and co. may be tempted by the upgrade and securing the signature of a World Cup winner and a Premier League-proven shot-stopper, they may be better suited to signing a much younger and cheaper goalkeeper who could be at the club for the next five to six years at minimum.
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