I apologize for not being able to write my Gameweek 15 article due to the extremely short turnaround time. However, there weren’t many players who could have made a big impact during that week. One of the most popular moves were Turner to Dubravka or Turner to Kelleher. If you followed my advice from my Gameweek 14 article and brought in Trent Alexander Arnold, you would have been rewarded with a lot of points. He scored 25 points in the last two game weeks.
As I had mentioned earlier, the congested period means there will be rotation and reduced minutes for players, and we saw that happen when popular picks like Tsimikas, Darwin, Cash, and Reece James started on the bench and the most captained player, Mohamed Salah, was subbed off early. This period can be chaotic, embrace it. Before diving into the article, let’s take a look at the odds for Gameweek 16.
Gameweek 16 Odds
For the odds, I am using FPL Review’s Massive Data Model’s Raw Data. This data is based on the assumption that a player plays 90 minutes and comes from the site’s Massive Data Model, which is known to be more predictive than cleaned Bookmaker Odds. Manchester City are top for Clean Sheet odds, while Wolves, Brighton, Liverpool, and Brentford all have 38% odds to keep a Clean Sheet. Luton Town, Burnley, and Bournemouth are at the bottom of the Clean Sheet data.
Erling Haaland tops the chart of Gameweek 16 Scorer Data, with 1.06 eGoals/90 and Anytime Scoring % of 65%, with Joao Pedro and Julian Alvarez making it to the top three with Anytime Scoring % of 53% and 46% respectively. Haaland is the best captaincy option this game week. If you don’t own him, plan to bring him in.
We’ve partnered with Drafthound to bring you analysis on fixtures, projected points, and more for the 2023-24 FPL season. Signing up through this link to Drafthound helps us grow, so if you want access to these features, please sign up through our link. If you have not checked out my Gameweek 14 article, you may do so as it is relevant to Gameweek 16. Let’s dive into our transfer targets for Gameweek 16.
Reece James (£5.4 million, Chelsea, Defender)
If you’re considering adding Reece James to your fantasy football team, it’s worth keeping in mind that he has a history of getting injured. However, there’s no denying the potential that the Chelsea captain possesses. James was suspended for Gameweek 14 and only played for 45 minutes in Gameweek 15, but it looks like he’s set to start in Gameweek 16 against Everton. Because of his injury record, I would recommend that managers listen to Mauricio Pochettino’s press conference if they’re thinking of adding James to their team.
I’m stressing the importance of buying the Chelsea right back because they have an excellent run of fixtures coming up. In the next six games, they’ll be playing Everton (A), Sheffield United (H), Wolves (A), Crystal Palace (H), Luton Town (A), and Fulham (H) – all of which are favourable matchups. So far this season, James has been averaging an expected goal (xG) of 0.08 per 90 minutes and an expected assist (xA) of 0.25 per 90 minutes.
Although Everton is a mid-table side in terms of attack and ranks eleventh for xG this season, defensive matchups in Gameweek 16 aren’t great for any team except for Manchester City. However, you may want to take a chance on James’ attacking potential. Drafthound’s model predicts an expected value of 3.7 for James against Everton and 20.3 expected value in the next five games. Keep in mind that Drafthound gives Chelsea a 31% chance of keeping a clean sheet.
Pedro Porro (£5.3 million, Defender, Tottenham Hotspur)
We have noticed a significant decline in the number of clean sheets this season, which has reduced the appeal of defenders in the game. Therefore, it is advisable to opt for defenders with higher attacking abilities and expected playing time. Pedro Porro is a great option in this category. Although the match against Newcastle United may not be favourable for him, few defenders have good fixtures this week.
After the Newcastle game, Porro will face Nottingham Forest(A), Everton(H), and Bournemouth(H) in the next four league games. The former Sporting CP defender has been excellent in attack this season and has been entrusted with all set-piece duties in the absence of James Maddison, which helps him accumulate bonus points. In the game against West Ham, despite conceding two goals and picking up a yellow card, Porro earned two bonus points.
Throughout this season, he has averaged an xG of 0.1 per 90 minutes and an xA of 0.19 per 90 minutes. Drafthound predicts Pedro Porro has a 20% chance of assisting in Gameweek 16. Their model further estimates an expected value of 4.2 for Porro in Gameweek 16 and 21.9 expected value in the next five games.
Raheem Sterling (£7.0 million, Midfielder, Chelsea)
I suggest transferring out Bryan Mbeumo as he is injured for a few weeks. There are many options available in and around his price range. Although I think Cole Palmer is the best replacement for the Cameroon international, I will not mention him again as I have already talked about him in my previous article. If you already own Palmer, I recommend doubling up on Chelsea midfield with Raheem Sterling.
Chelsea has a great fixture run from Gameweek 16, facing Everton (H), Sheffield United (A), Wolves (A), Crystal Palace (H), Luton Town (A), and Fulham (H) in the next six games. I prefer Palmer and Sterling over Gordon as the weekend-midweek turnaround and injuries to key players are starting to impact the Newcastle side. So far this season, Palmer has been averaging an xGI of 0.76 per 90 minutes and Sterling has been averaging an xGI of 0.37 per 90 minutes, which I expect to go up significantly given the easy fixtures.
One important point to note is that Sterling has four yellow cards and will be suspended for one game if he picks up another before Gameweek 19. According to Drafthound’s model, Sterling is projected an expected value of 25.3 and Palmer is projected an expected value of 23.9 in the next five games.
Phil Foden (£7.5 million, Midfielder, Manchester City)
The upcoming Gameweek 16 of the Premier League features Manchester City with a favourable fixture for both defence and offence. While I did not recommend any defenders in my article due to their lack of attacking potential and rotation risks, if you have a Manchester City defender, it is advisable to start them. On the other hand, the attacking players of City have been consistently getting playing time.
Phil Foden, who has been averaging 77 minutes per game this season, can be an excellent option for the upcoming fixture against Luton Town. If you can afford to bench him in Gameweek 18 when Manchester City blanks, then his upcoming fixtures against Luton Town (A), Crystal Palace (H), Everton (A), and Sheffield United (H) in the next five games have the potential to give you a significant advantage. Foden has scored four goals and provided three assists this season, with an average xG of 0.28 per 90 minutes and an xA of 0.16 per 90 minutes.
According to Drafthound, Manchester City has the highest probability (60%) of scoring more than two goals in Gameweek 16, and their model predicts Foden to be the third highest points scorer in this game week after Haaland and Salah. Drafthound also suggests that Foden has a 35% chance of scoring and a 33% chance of assisting in Gameweek 16. Moreover, their model predicts that Foden’s expected value will be 6.7 in Gameweek 16 and 26.7 in the next five games.
It would be wise to wait and listen to the press conferences before making any transfers as we have a few yellow flags in our teams. Also, if you have been enjoying my content, I would highly recommend following me on X at @psb_punk for more insight and content. I wish everyone the best of luck for Gameweek 14, and I hope you all get those green arrows!